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Political Analysis of the TCTF (EU) and IRA (US). Projections and Future Perspective

AufsätzeSteffen Sühnel , Giselle RamacherBRZ 2025, 59 Heft 2 v. 16.7.2025

This report examines the future of the Temporary Crises and Transition Framework (TCTF) and the current debate within the European Union (EU) regarding its role in enhancing competitiveness and the need for a (clean) European Industrial Policy.11Communication from the Commission of the 09.11.2022, Temporary Crisis Framework for State Aid measures to support the economy following the aggression against Ukraine by Russia, 2022/C 426/01, latest alteration by Communication from the Commission of the 21.11.2023, Amendment to the Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework for State Aid measures to support the economy following the aggression against Ukraine by Russia, C/2023/8045. It outlines firstly European stakeholders’ positions on extending the TCTF. While some EU Member States support the extension of the TCTF to enhance competitiveness and clean technology investments, others express concerns over market inequalities and advocate for common EU funding to ensure equal opportunities of the single market. The analysis of the industry transformation and future EU subsidies by academics and economic experts will be presented, as it serves as crucial input for the European Commission (EC) in making the decision on the prolongation of the TCTF. It also considers the impact of Donald Trump’s re-election on the future of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which aims to invest significantly in green technology through various financial incentives.22President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act on 16.08.2022 to invest in clean energy and climate action. Trump’s intention to dismantle the IRA introduces uncertainty that could influence both US and EU subsidy policies. Finally, the report analyses the global subsidy policy of the EU, particularly in green technology subsidies, vis-à-vis emerging players like Canada and China, which are interested in providing fundings to drive innovation and sustainability and support their industry.

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